§ 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31 EQUITIES

SMA Crossover · SPY

Dual moving-average crossover (5 / 40) on US equities.

Overall grade
B B
CAGR
+11.26%
Sharpe
1.04
Max DD
-11.7%
Trades
13
Benchmark   ·   Engine divergence
SPY B&H +10.84% Bar ≈ Event

Profit factor 4.17, Kelly 40.9%. GBM noise and GAN crash grades both C — suspicious profit on GBM hints at mild overfitting.

§ 4 pages Full scorecard

Every page. Click to enlarge.

Summary & grades
Bar-engine backtest
Event-driven backtest
Monte Carlo distributions